커피 판매를 증가시키는 과학적인 방법

[소비자행동] 커피숍에서 사람들이 커피를 빨리 사게 만드는 방법 Kivetz, Ran, Oleg Urminsky, and Yuhuang Zheng (2006) "The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retent..

 

제 전공인 Consumer Behavior에서 박사자격 시험때 공부했던 논문 소개 들어갑니다! Goal and Motivation(목표와 동기) 범주에 속한 논문을 소개드립니다. 

 

가장 인상 깊었던 예시는 커피숍에서 

A. 커피를 마시고 도장 5개 (OOOOO) 를 찍으면 무료 커피를 주는 쿠폰과 
B. 도장 7개를 찍어야 하지만, 도장 2개를 미리 찍어서 (XXOOOOO) 준 쿠폰을 비교했을 때

두 조건 모두 5개를 찍어야 하는 것은 동일하지만, B의 경우 사람들이 더 빨리 쿠폰을 채운다는 연구였어요!또한 공짜 커피에 다가가면 다가갈 수록 커피를 더 빨리빨리 마신다 

라는 내용의 연구입니다.

 

제가 나중에 마케팅 연구를 통해 사람들도 돕고 돈도 벌 궁리를 하고 있는데, 그 꿈의 시초가 된 논문입니다.

 

Kivetz, Ran, Oleg Urminsky, and Yuhuang Zheng (2006), "The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention," Journal of Marketing Research, 43 (1), 39-58.

 

• Keys
  • Goal Gradient hypothesis
    • Definition
      • The goal-gradient hypothesis, originally proposed by the behaviorist Clark Hull in 1932, states that the tendency to approach a goal increases with proximity to the goal.
    • RPs
      • Furthermore, this issue has important theoretical and practical implications for intertemporal consumer behavior in reward programs (herein after RPs) and other types of motivational systems (e.g., Deighton 2000; Hsee, Yu, and Zhang 2003; Kivetz 2003; Lal and Bell 2003).
    • Motivation, affect, and cognition: supports the relevance of the goal-gradient hypothesis
      • cybernetic control model
        골에 근접하면 긍정적인 감정이 인다!
        • comparisons of the rate of progress toward the goal with a relevant criterion generate affect; when progress exceeds (falls short of) the criterion, positive (negative) affect arises (see also Fishbach and Dhar 2005; Soman and Shi 2003).
      • Prospect theory
        • In addition, Heath, Larrick, and Wu (1999) propose that as a result of the diminishing sensitivity of prospect theory’s value function, people should exert more effort as they near their (self-imposed) goals.
  • Goal-Distance Model (GDM)
    • KEY
      • We capture all of the findings with a parsimonious goal-distance model (GDM), in which effort investment is a function of the proportion of original distance remaining to the goal (i.e., psychological distance).
        이것에 따라 투자한다는 거시
    • Detail
      • Relative goal distance ← distance to a goal/total distance(reference) = proportion of the total distance remaining to the goal)
        • The sensitivity to relative and reference values suggests that consumers spontaneously consider their distance to a goal, incorporating the total distance as a reference point, which leads to an evaluation of relative goal distance.
        • Accordingly, we conceptualize and model the psychological (or perceived) goal distance as the proportion of the total (original) distance remaining to the goal.
        • We define this distance as dt = (r – nt)/r,
          남은 effort / 전체 해야하는 effort
          • where r is the perceived total effort requirement of the reward (i.e., the starting distance to the goal) and
          • nt is the amount of the requirements already fulfilled by a person at time t.
          • The observed measure dt has a possible range from 1 to 0, such that 1 occurs when no progress toward the goal has yet been made and 0 occurs when the goal is achieved.
      • Relative goal distance↑ → motivation↓
        • The goal-gradient hypothesis implies that
          • the latent (unobserved) motivation at time t
            to achieve the goal (mt*) is a decreasing function of dt; that is,

            

          • t 시점에서의 동기
• Takeaways
  • Key findings! — unequivocal, systematic behavioral goal gradients in the context of the human psychology of rewards
    1. café RP: Progress toward earning a free coffee → purchase coffee ↑
       RP = Reward Program
       • Summary
         • Members of a café RP (e.g., “buy ten coffees, get one free”) purchase coffee more frequently the closer they are to earning a free coffee (on average, interpurchase times decrease by 20% or .7 days throughout the program).
         • We found that members of a café RP accelerated their coffee purchases as they progressed toward earning a free coffee.
       • Design
         • Make ten coffee purchases to earn a reward, one stamp per visit. (To test H1)
         • incomplete cards could be bought back
           나중에 커피 보상을 완료하지 않은 사람들의 카드도 수거함
         • ∃(there exist) purchasing does not earn rewards group
           그냥 커피 먹을때 마다 카드에 도장 찍어주세요! 요청한 Group도 있었음
       • Result
         점점 가속화!
         • As members accumulated more stamps on their cards, the average length of time before their next coffee purchase decreased. (average acceleration of 20%)
       • Alternative Explanations
         • Time-trend and habituation accounts ?
           점점 시간이 감에 중독이 되었거나 하는 영향이 있는거 아님? 아래 2 가지로 ruled out!
           • Postreward setting — The first two interpurchase times on the second card were slower than the last two interpurchase times on the first card → ruled out
           • Transparent card: customers will fail to exhibit acceleration when carrying a transparent card (unredeemable card)
    2. Music Rating:
       goal distance (acceleration in intervisit times) ↓
       → visit↑ rate quantity↑persist↑
       • Summary
         • The findings generalize beyond coffee purchases to effort involving repeatedly rating music over the Internet and goal gradients operationalized by acceleration in intervisit times, lift in rating quantities, and enhanced persistence closer to the reward threshold.
         • The goal-gradient effect also generalized to a very different incentive system, in which shorter goal distance led members to visit a song-rating Web site more frequently, rate more songs during each visit, and persist longer in the rating effort.
       • Context
         • Rate 51 songs on the Jaboom Web site to earn a $25 Amazon.com certificate. Both the quantity of ratings in each visit and the intervisit times examined
       • Result
         • As members approached the 51-song goal, they rated more songs in later visits.
         • Members rated more songs per visit when they were closer to the goal. (Quantity)
         • Members were more likely to defect when they were farther away from the reward goal/ more likely to persist when closer to the goal (Effort Persistence)
         • significant goal gradients found even after unobserved heterogeneity and statistically controlled for time trends in visit and song-rating frequencies taken into account.
    3. cf) 위의 두 study
       • Importantly, in both incentive systems, we observed the phenomenon of postreward resetting, whereby customers who accelerated toward their first reward exhibited a slowdown in their efforts when they began work (and subsequently accelerated) toward their second reward.
         하나 달성한 이후에! 천천히...시작 했다가 가속
    4. Illusionary goal progress effect
       중요한 것은 perceived goal progress > actual
       • Key
         • The illusion of progress toward the goal induces purchase acceleration!
         • Goal motivation is influenced by the perceived rather than by the real progress toward the goal
       • Summary & Settings
         • 12-stamp coffee card with two preexisting “bonus” stamps
           vs 10-stamp card
           • For example, customers who receive a 12-stamp coffee card with two preexisting “bonus” stamps complete the ten required purchases faster than customers who receive a “regular” 10-stamp card.
           • Process experiments show that the illusionary goal progress effect cannot be explained by rival accounts, such as sunk cost.
       • Hypothesis
         • H2: Illusionary progress toward the reward goal motivates consumers to accelerate their efforts to earn the reward
       • Result
         • Illusionary goal progress led to faster completion of the reward requirement. (20%)
       • Alternative Explanations
         2개 stamp가 찍혀 있는 것에 대한 아까움 아니야? 2개 먹어서 찍힌거라고 상상해보라고 한 condition은 카드 잊어버리는 것을 슬퍼했는데, 그렇지 않은 집단을 슬퍼하지 않았음!
         • Sunk cost: Negative emotion - If you lost a 1)8-stamp 2)10-stamp with 2 prestamped 3)10-stamp with 2 from your purchase → no difference in 1) and 2), worse in 3).
       • Psychological goal distance (dt) is a key determinant of achievement motivation and willingness to invest effort!
    5. Postreward resetting.
       accelerate toward their first reward → retention ↑ faster reengagement
       • Consistent with the notion that a steeper goal gradient indicates a stronger motivation to earn rewards, people’s tendency to accelerate toward their first reward predicts a greater probability of retention and faster reengagement in the program.
       • Logic
         • If the motivation to earn free rewards is related to the steepness of the goal gradient, individual differences in the tendency to accelerate should predict customer retention after attainment of the first reward.
       • Result:
         • Members who accelerated more strongly toward their first reward were more likely to earn a second reward.
         • Members who accelerated more strongly towartheir first reward were faster to begin working toward their second reward
    6. effort investment = f(distance remaing to the goal %)
       • We capture all of the findings with a parsimonious goal-distance model (GDM), in which effort investment is a function of
         인색한
         1. the proportion of original distance remaining to the goal
         2. (i.e., psychological distance).
            이것에 따라 투자한다는 거시
    7. Alternative Explanations
       • The observed purchase and effort acceleration cannot be explained by habituation, expiration concerns, other time-trend effects, or heterogeneity bias.
         • For example, we observe goal-motivated acceleration after accounting for weekly sales and other time-varying covariates,
           • and we find a majority of accelerators after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in both the hazard rate and the tendency to accelerate.
             고려하고도 찾을 수 있다
         • Notably, purchase and effort rates reset (to a lower level) after the first reward
           • is earned and then reaccelerate toward the second reward goal.

 

cf) 대학 & 대학원 입시 자기소개서를 "논문 연구"로 풍부하게 만들어 드립니다. 서비스가 궁금하다면?
https://beautifulresearch.tistory.com/39

대학, 대학원 입시 자소서 & 면접에 논문으로 깊이를 더해 드립니다! (입시, 면접, 대학자소서, 대

cf) 해외 논문 톱 저널 순서대로 신속하고 완벽하게 정리해 드립니다 (논문검색, 선행연구, 논문리서치, 사업근거마련) 서비스가 궁금하다면? https://beautifulresearch.tistory.com/40

해외 논문 톱 저널 순서대로 신속하고 완벽하게 정리! #선행논문 #논문검색 #논문리서치 #사업근

— 해당 서비스를 이용하시면 Sci-Hub에 검색하여 다운받기에 용이하도록 DOI도 정리해드립니다
sci hub 참고: https://beautifulresearch.tistory.com/20

cf) 대학원생 스터디 톡방도 운영하고 있습니다 (계획, 기상 등 본인 원하는 것들 인증)! 연구에 외로운 대학원 동료분들 언제든 들어오세요! (https://open.kakao.com/o/gz2ZHI7c)

 

[글쓴이 소개]

서강대학교 수학&심리 복수전공 최우등 졸업

KAIST 마케팅 전공 석사 최우등 졸업, 박사과정 수료

자세한 소개는: https://beautifulresearch.tistory.com/7